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Crypto markets traded India v Pakistan. What the law says

Saturday's Asian Games final was a tradeable contract on crypto prediction markets, and one of them does not block Pakistan. Our gambling law, the betting-app crackdown and PVARA's rules all bear on whether a Pakistani should take part. None gives a clear yes.

Ammar Khan

Ammar Khan

4 min read
A Pakistani flag, a small handheld flag, a tiger mask, and a green visor.
Photo by SK Sherazi on Unsplash

Key takeaways

  • Polymarket's market on the India v Pakistan Asian Games final recorded $294,952 in trading volume. India won by 19 runs.
  • Pakistan is not on Polymarket's list of blocked or restricted countries, as of 4 October 2026.
  • Pakistan's federal gambling law defines gaming to include betting. A note in the official Pakistan Code version says it now applies only in Islamabad.
  • PVARA's 2026 regulations do not mention prediction markets. No company holds a PVARA licence yet.

The final, and the market on it

India beat Pakistan by 19 runs in the Asian Games men's cricket final at Nisshin, Japan, on Saturday. India made 211 for 6. Pakistan replied with 192 for 6, carried by 96 off 51 balls from Hasan Nawaz, according to ESPNcricinfo's scorecard.

The match was also a financial product. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders bought and sold contracts on the result from 1 October. Each contract pays $1 if its team wins and nothing if it loses, or 50 cents if the match is tied without a tiebreak or abandoned, so the price works as the crowd's estimate of the odds. The event recorded $294,952 in volume, almost all of it on the match winner. It closed with India at 100 cents and Pakistan at zero.

In the United States the same match was listed on Robinhood, through US exchanges including Kalshi. Pakistan has no equivalent framework.

Can someone in Pakistan trade on it?

Polymarket does not stop them. It publishes a list of restricted regions. It blocks sanctioned territories, and limits users in more than 30 other countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Singapore, to closing positions they already hold. Pakistan was not on the list when we checked on 4 October. Trades are settled in a dollar stablecoin, not rupees.

Polymarket puts the legal question back on the user. On its website, users trading attest that they are not in a "restricted jurisdiction" and are not "using a VPN or other measures to circumvent" restrictions. Not being blocked is a choice Polymarket has made about its own risk. It is not a statement that trading is legal where you live.

What Pakistani law says

The Prevention of Gambling Act 1977 defines "gaming" to include "wagering or betting". Being found gaming in a house, room or other place carries up to two years in prison, a fine of up to Rs1,000, or both. Repeat offences carry up to three years.

There is a catch that is often missed. A footnote in the official text on Pakistan Code says the Act ceased to have effect from 15 March 1978, "except the Islamabad Capital Territory". Elsewhere, gambling falls under provincial laws, which we have not reviewed for this piece. The federal Act is written around physical places: gaming houses, rooms, streets. We have not found a court ruling on how they apply to a betting market on a phone, funded in crypto.

Enforcement has gone after the apps instead. In August 2025 the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency declared 46 betting and trading apps illegal, including 1xBet, Betway and Bet365, and the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority was told to block them, The News reported. The agency said it would act against "developers and promoters".

Where PVARA fits, and where it doesn't

Pakistan's crypto regulator has published detailed rules, but none of them addresses this directly. The licence application form in the Virtual Asset Services Regulations 2026 (S.R.O. 1419(I)/2026) lists eleven kinds of licence, from exchanges and custody to "Virtual Asset Derivatives Services". Prediction markets, event contracts and betting are not mentioned anywhere in the text.

The regulations do say when a foreign platform may count as operating "in Pakistan": if it targets, onboards or markets to people here, or offers PKR payment. It does not count merely because its website can be opened here, provided it does not market or onboard here, offers no PKR payment, and takes "reasonable steps to prevent onboarding". Whether a prediction market is a virtual asset service at all is a question PVARA has not answered.

For background on the authority's limits, see what PVARA is, and what it can and cannot regulate, and what the Virtual Assets Act says.

What this means for Pakistani users

  • Access is not permission. A site that does not block Pakistan has made a business decision. It has not certified that using it is legal here.
  • Betting is gambling under Pakistani law. The federal Act's definition includes wagering, and enforcement agencies have treated betting apps as illegal. Whether a court would treat a crypto prediction market the same way is untested. That uncertainty is a risk, not a loophole.
  • There is no local protection. No PVARA-licensed platform offers prediction markets. Funding one means buying a stablecoin first. With no licensed exchange here, that means an offshore exchange or P2P, which has its own risks covered in our USDT rate tracker. If a market resolves in a way you dispute, or an account is frozen, Pakistani regulators have no role.
  • This is not legal advice. If you need a view on your own position, ask a lawyer.

What we're watching

  • Whether PVARA says if event contracts fall under its derivatives licence, or outside its remit.
  • Whether NCCIA or PTA action against betting apps extends to crypto prediction markets.
  • Whether Polymarket's restricted list changes to include Pakistan.

Sources

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