USDT's rupee premium fell to its lowest in our records while Binance was frozen, then bounced back
While Binance's withdrawals were frozen after its $6.3 billion hack, the extra Pakistanis pay for USDT over the official dollar rate fell to 1.41%, the lowest in three months of our daily data. It recovered as withdrawals began to reopen on Sunday. Here is what the numbers show, and what they don't.
Key takeaways
- On Binance's rupee P2P market, the premium on USDT over the official dollar rate fell from 3.03% on 29 October to 1.41% on 31 October. That is the lowest reading since our series began on 6 August.
- On 1 November, as Binance began reopening withdrawals, the premium went back to 2.78%. On 2 November it was 2.64%.
- On Friday, USDT was about Rs3 cheaper on Binance's P2P market than on Bybit's. By Monday Binance was the dearer of the two.
- Binance says it has covered about 95% of the loss and that withdrawals of USDT on the TRON, BNB Chain and Ethereum networks reopened in its first phase.
What happened to the price
Every day at 2 pm Pakistan time we record the median price of USDT on Binance's PKR P2P market and compare it with the official dollar rate. The difference is the P2P premium: what Pakistanis pay above the bank rate to get dollar value in crypto.
| Date | Official rate | Binance P2P mid | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 October | Rs276.91 | Rs285.31 | 3.03% |
| 30 October | Rs276.60 | Rs283.05 | 2.33% |
| 31 October | Rs276.78 | Rs280.69 | 1.41% |
| 1 November | Rs276.75 | Rs284.44 | 2.78% |
| 2 November | Rs276.73 | Rs284.05 | 2.64% |
Binance says its hot wallets were compromised at around 20:05 UTC on 29 October, which was 1:05 am on 30 October in Pakistan. It suspended withdrawals soon after. Our readings on 30 and 31 October were both taken while they were suspended.
The 31 October reading is the lowest in 89 days of data. The next lowest was 2.06%, on 20 September. In the month before the hack, the premium had mostly moved between about 2.2% and 3.6%.
Binance's fourth update said the first phase of withdrawals would reopen "on 2026-11-01 between 06:00 and 09:00 (UTC)", which is 11 am to 2 pm in Pakistan. Our 1 November reading was taken at the end of that window, as withdrawals began to reopen. The premium was back near its usual level.
Binance against Bybit
Our daily series covers Binance only. We also took two snapshots of both Binance's and Bybit's rupee books.
- Friday 30 October, 7:31 pm PKT: the median mid-price was Rs283.56 on Binance and Rs286.64 on Bybit. Binance was about Rs3 cheaper.
- Monday 2 November, 5:08 pm PKT: Rs285.88 on Binance and Rs284.45 on Bybit. Binance was now about Rs1.40 dearer.
We have no Bybit reading for the weekend, so we cannot say exactly when the gap closed.
Why the premium might have fallen
One reading fits the timing. While withdrawals were suspended, USDT held on Binance could be traded inside Binance but could not be sent anywhere else. For someone who wants to move dollars abroad, pay a supplier or hold coins in their own wallet, that USDT was worth less until withdrawals came back. Sellers who wanted out of Binance would have had to accept lower prices to find buyers.
The rebound on 1 November, as withdrawals began to reopen, and Binance's switch from cheapest to dearest by Monday both support that reading. But we cannot prove it from prices alone. Other things moved during the same days, including the price of bitcoin and the mood of the whole market.
Where the Binance incident stands
- Who did it. On 31 October the FBI said North Korea "was responsible for the theft of more than $6 billion USD in virtual assets" from Binance. It calls the group "TraderTraitor".
- What Binance says it has covered. In its fourth update Binance said it "has now covered approximately 95% of the impacted amount" and that balances in bitcoin, ether, USDT, BNB, Solana, USDC and several other assets "are fully backed 100%". These are Binance's own statements.
- Proof. Binance says a proof-of-reserves snapshot was taken on 31 October and that the full proof should be ready by 3 November. It had not been published when we checked.
- Withdrawals. The first phase covered 15 networks, including USDT on TRON (TRC-20), BNB Chain (BEP-20) and Ethereum (ERC-20), three of the most common networks for USDT. Binance says more networks "will be added once they are ready".
We covered what Pakistan's licensing rules would demand of an exchange in Binance's position in our first report on the hack.
What this means for Pakistani users
- The discount is gone. If you were waiting to buy cheap USDT on Binance, the gap with other platforms has closed, at least for now.
- Withdraw only on the network you need. If you are moving USDT off Binance, check that the network on the withdrawal screen matches the one the receiving wallet or exchange expects. A wrong network can mean lost funds.
- A frozen exchange means a lower price for what's stuck on it. If you sell on a platform whose withdrawals are suspended, expect to accept less. That is what our numbers show on 30 and 31 October.
- Spreading your holdings across platforms limits your risk. No Pakistani regulator stands behind any exchange yet.
What we're watching
- Whether Binance publishes its proof of reserves, and whether an outside firm checks it.
- Whether the premium settles back within its usual range over the coming week. Our monthly P2P report for October will cover the full month.
- Binance's later withdrawal phases and the networks still suspended.
Sources
- CryptoPakistan USDT/PKR P2P premium series: Binance P2P trimmed median against the official rate, 09:00 UTC daily, 29 October to 2 November 2026. Binance and Bybit PKR books read at 14:31 UTC on 30 October and 12:08 UTC on 2 November.
- Binance, Security Incident Update #2, 30 October 2026.
- Binance, Recovery Update #3, 31 October 2026.
- Binance, Recovery Update #4: Withdrawals Resume in Phases, 1 November 2026.
- FBI, North Korea Responsible for $6 Billion+ Binance Attack, 31 October 2026.
