Remittances rose 14.7% after the subsidy ended. USDT still costs more

Key takeaways

• Workers' remittances reached $7.29 billion in July and August 2026, up 14.7% on a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Finance.
• August alone brought $3.7 billion, up 16.5%, the second month after the remittance fee subsidy ended.
• The official rupee was stronger at the end of September than a year earlier: 277.1 per dollar against 281.4.
• Our daily P2P median has been between 2.06% and 3.76% above the official rate on every day since 6 August, excluding one reference-feed error on 22 August.

The number we said we would check

On 6 August we reported that the State Bank had ended the Telegraphic Transfer Charges Incentive Scheme, which repaid banks for waiving fees on money sent home. We said the risk was that some remittances would move to cheaper, informal routes, and that we would compare the monthly figures against the period before July.

The first two months are in. The Ministry of Finance's Monthly Economic Update for September, published on 30 September with State Bank data, says workers' remittances "surged 14.7 percent to $7.29 billion" in July and August, up from $6.3 billion a year earlier. August alone was $3.7 billion, against $3.1 billion in August 2025.

Two months is a short window, and growth does not show what would have happened if the subsidy had stayed. But the outcome we flagged as the risk, inflows softening once the subsidy went, does not appear in the official figures so far.

What the ministry says the money is doing

The ministry gives remittances a bigger role than usual. The $7.29 billion was larger than Pakistan's entire goods and services deficit of $6.75 billion for the two months, it says, and kept the current account deficit to $543 million, down from $853 million a year earlier, even as goods imports rose 11.4%, which the ministry puts down to higher oil prices and recovering demand.

The rest of the external picture moved the same way. Services exports grew 28.8% to $1.81 billion. The government raised $3 billion from a Eurobond in September, and the State Bank's liquid reserves reached $21.39 billion on 18 September. The State Bank's dollar rate stood at 277.1 rupees on 29 September, from 281.4 a year earlier.

The gap that hasn't closed

You might expect strong official dollar inflows and a firmer rupee to narrow the gap between the official rate and what people pay for USDT, the dollar-linked token traded on Pakistani P2P markets. In our data, it hasn't.

Every day since 6 August we have recorded the price of USDT on Binance P2P against a published USD/PKR reference rate. Across 57 readings the premium has never fallen below 2.06%. (One reading of 5.78% on 22 August was an error in the reference-rate feed, not a real spike, and we leave it out.) The median premium was 2.70% in August and 2.58% in September. On 1 October it was 2.84%, with USDT at about Rs284.84.

Our premium is measured against the ExchangeRate API reference, not the State Bank's rate, but the two are close. On 29 September our reference read 276.96 and the State Bank's 277.1. Against either, USDT cost about 3.2% to 3.3% more that day.

We are not going to explain the gap with a cause we can't show. A P2P price includes the cost of a counterparty taking payment risk, platform fees and simple demand for a dollar asset outside the banking system. Our series started on 6 August, so we can't yet say whether the gap was wider or narrower a year ago, when remittances were lower.

What this means for Pakistani users

• If you receive money from abroad, the formal route is still growing. Nothing in these figures suggests banks have stopped processing remittances since the subsidy ended. Compare the rupees you receive with the State Bank rate on the day, as we suggested in August.
• Converting through USDT has a cost of its own. At a premium of about 2.5% to 3%, Rs100,000 spent on USDT through P2P buys roughly 2.5% to 3% fewer dollars than the same rupees would at the official rate. Check the live USDT rate before you trade.
• No P2P route is regulated yet. No exchange holds a PVARA licence. If a trade goes wrong, the platform's own process is your only remedy.
• This is a measurement, not advice. It describes what was paid. It doesn't tell you which route to use.

What we're watching

• September's remittance figure, due from the State Bank in the first half of October. A third month will show whether July and August were a pattern.
• Whether the P2P premium drifts down as reserves rise, or stays inside the 2% to 4% band it has held since August.
• A second P2P venue in our daily archive, so a single exchange cannot move the series on its own.

Sources

• Ministry of Finance, Monthly Economic Update & Outlook, September 2026, including the Economic Indicators table (State Bank data, as of 30 September 2026).
• ExchangeRate API, USD/PKR reference rate, used for our daily premium.
• ProPakistani, "SBP ends remittance incentive schemes for banks after IMF pressure", 3 July 2026.
• CryptoPakistan P2P premium series, 57 daily readings from 6 August to 1 October 2026: USDT rate in Pakistan.
• CryptoPakistan, Pakistan's $41.6bn Remittance Subsidy Just Ended, 6 August 2026.