USDT's rupee premium touched its highest since August as Binance closed the book on its hack
At 2 pm on Friday, USDT cost 3.77% more on Binance's rupee market than the dollar's reference rate, the highest daily reading since August. By evening it was back near 3.4%. Here is what moved this week, and what it means if you buy dollars in crypto.
Key takeaways
- Our 2 pm reading on Friday put the premium on Binance's rupee P2P market at 3.77%, about Rs10.44 per dollar above the reference rate. That is the highest daily reading since 22 August.
- By 8:52 pm the median price on Binance's book was down to about 3.4% above the reference, and Bybit's was about 3.3%.
- Binance says it has finished covering the assets lost in last month's hack. The US Justice Department says it has court authorisation to seize or restrain more than $1.2 billion of the stolen crypto.
- Bitcoin was about $68,700 on Friday evening, down about 12% from 2 November.
What the premium did
Every day at 2 pm Pakistan time we record the median price of USDT on Binance's rupee P2P market and compare it with the official dollar reference rate. The difference is the P2P premium: what Pakistanis pay above the bank rate to get dollar value in crypto.
| Date | Reference rate | Binance P2P mid | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 November | Rs276.95 | Rs284.49 | 2.72% |
| 12 November | Rs276.93 | Rs284.89 | 2.87% |
| 13 November | Rs276.62 | Rs287.06 | 3.77% |
Friday's figure is the highest since 22 August, when the premium was 5.78%. It is level with 28 September (3.76%). Both of the last two spikes were brief. The premium fell to 3.29% the day after 28 September, and from 3.63% on 18 October to 2.91% a day later.
Friday looked similar. When we read both rupee books again at 8:52 pm, the median mid-price was Rs286.12 on Binance and Rs285.81 on Bybit. That puts them about 3.4% and 3.3% above the same reference rate. Those evening snapshots are a different measurement from our daily series, so treat them as a check, not as part of the series.
In the two weeks since Binance reopened withdrawals on 1 November, the daily premium moved between 2.33% and 3.09%. It fell to 1.41% on 31 October, while withdrawals were frozen, as we reported at the time.
The week's news
Three things happened around the move. Our data cannot tell us which of them, if any, pushed the price.
Binance says it has covered the loss. In a notice dated 12 November, Binance said it "has completed coverage of assets impacted in the security incident". It says it committed "more than $6.34 billion in company funds" and used part of its SAFU emergency fund, which it will top back up to about $1 billion. The notice also announces a new proof of reserves. These are Binance's own statements, and no outside auditor has checked them.
The US is going after the stolen money. The US Justice Department said on 12 November that it has court authorisation to seize or restrain more than $1.2 billion of the crypto stolen from Binance, and that US government and private-sector efforts have frozen more than $2.7 billion. It blames members of North Korea's military, which the FBI calls "TraderTraitor". The release does not say where any recovered money will go. Binance says it has already covered users' losses from its own funds.
Bitcoin fell. CoinGecko put bitcoin at $68,665 on Friday evening, down 3.7% in a day and about 12% below the $77,806 we recorded on 2 November.
What this means for Pakistani users
- Dollars in crypto cost a bit more this week. At Friday's 2 pm reading, every dollar of USDT on Binance's P2P market cost about Rs10.44 above the reference rate. A week earlier, on 6 November, it was about Rs7.90 at a 2.85% premium. On a Rs100,000 purchase, that difference comes to about Rs900.
- One day's high is not a trend. The last two spikes reversed within a day, and Friday's had mostly faded by the evening. If you don't need dollars today, compare a few readings first. Our premium page updates every 15 minutes.
- Binance says balances are whole. If you hold USDT on Binance, the exchange says its losses are fully covered. That is Binance's claim. No Pakistani regulator supervises its reserves yet, because no exchange is licensed here.
- Watch for fake meeting invites. The same Justice Department release describes "FaceStealer", a North Korea-linked scam that has stolen more than $400 million. Victims get a meeting invitation from a contact's hijacked account, see a deepfake or prerecorded video of someone they trust, and are told to run a "fix" for a fake technical error. The fix installs malware. If a call asks you to install something to fix your audio or video, hang up and check with the person another way.
What we're watching
- Whether the premium stays above 3% next week or drops back into its usual range, as it did after the last two spikes.
- Whether Binance's new proof of reserves is checked by an outside firm.
- Court filings on the $1.2 billion, and whether any of it is returned or forfeited.
- The licence applications from Binance and HTX, which by our reading of PVARA's rules fall due around 21 November. Our licence tracker will be updated.
Sources
- CryptoPakistan USDT/PKR P2P premium series: Binance P2P trimmed median against the official reference rate, 09:00 UTC (2 pm PKT) daily, 6 August to 13 November 2026. Binance and Bybit rupee books read at 15:52 UTC (8:52 pm PKT) on 13 November.
- Binance, Binance Completes Coverage of Assets Impacted in Security Incident; New Proof of Reserves Published, 12 November 2026.
- US Department of Justice, Justice Department Announces Actions to Disrupt North Korea's Massive Theft of Cryptocurrency, press release 26-1356, 12 November 2026.
- CoinGecko bitcoin price, 13 November 2026, about 15:51 UTC.
